Competitor Decline Timing · UA Intelligence

Spent $47k last Tuesday. Rival's CCU was up 18%.

You bought traffic into their strongest week — when their players had no reason to leave. Metriqal detects when a specific competitor is in multi-week structural decline: CCU drop, community retreat, ad library pullback. When their players are actively looking for an alternative, your spend goes in. When your own product isn't ready, the gate holds it back. One external signal that doesn't require attribution precision.

No credit card. Credentials delivered to your inbox in seconds.

38 hrsBack-tested detection lead
HourlyRadar · 30-min live CCU
10 minSetup — one App ID
FreeTo start

Marginal ROAS lives in a 72-hour window.

Buying traffic into a rival's strong week inflates your CPIs and acquires players with no reason to churn from them. Buying into their structural weakness — when players are already looking for an alternative — is where durable ROAS gains come from. We detect the signals that open and close that window.

📡

Structural decline detection

Your watchlist runs on an hourly radar cycle, with live CCU sampled every 30 minutes. CCU trends, sentiment velocity, review decay, and ad library freshness across Steam, Metacritic, community channels, and Meta Ad Library. When signals converge — CCU dropping, complaints spiking, ad creative exhausted — the window opens. In our Nov-2024 back-test on one title, the signal crossed 38 hours before the decline surfaced on SteamDB.

Hourly · 30-min CCU
📊

Confidence ceilings on every directive

Spend directives carry a confidence ceiling based on signal convergence. A single CCU dip is weak evidence — ceiling stays low. CCU decline + sentiment surge + review velocity shift + ad pullback = high confidence. You see the ceiling before approving budget. The signal is external and observable, regardless of your own attribution stack.

Signal-weighted
🔍

Automated competitor discovery

Daily IGDB scan surfaces high-velocity titles in your genre with overlapping Steam tag profiles. Jaccard similarity against your game's tag set. New relevant competitors appear in your watchlist without manual hunting. Dismissed suggestions stay dismissed.

Daily IGDB scan

Never buy traffic into a broken product.

Rising CPIs are expensive. Acquiring players who immediately churn because your own game has a retention cliff is more expensive. Knowing a competitor is weakening only matters if your product is in shape to absorb the spend. The gate checks both sides before issuing a directive.

Your own product health, checked automatically

Own-game retention drops → spend directive blocked until it recovers

If your game's 7-day retention drops more than 5 percentage points from its durable baseline, the spend gate activates — regardless of what competitors are doing. No analyst required. No dashboard to check. It fires on every directive calculation, automatically.

The studios that win competitive windows are the ones that scale into a rival's weakness when their own product is solid. Scaling into a competitor window with a leaky product acquires players with no reason to stay. The gate separates those two situations.

The baseline filters multi-week retention signals to avoid false positives on short-lived post-patch volatility. A one-day dip doesn't trigger the gate — a sustained structural drop does.

Crisis Gate: Active
UA spend gated — retention in decline
aggressive_uacq capped until retention recovers
retention_delta−7.2pp
threshold−5.0pp
confidence ceiling0.55
durable window21 days

Directional lift is a story. Incremental lift is evidence.

Post-ATT, attribution precision is broken across every media source. D7 doesn't predict D30 by channel and nobody can prove causality from a dashboard screenshot. Metriqal validates every spend directive 7 days post-execution — giving you the sentence that justifies the next budget increase without depending on MMP accuracy.

Validation without extra tooling

Two-proportion z-test on your own cohort data. Output in 7 days.

Metriqal runs a two-proportion z-test on your player cohort data 7 days after every directive. Pre/post retention comparison, p-value, cohort size. Without a holdout, lift is directional — internally consistent, not causal. Strong D7 doesn't prove strong D30 by media source, and a screenshot doesn't prove causality.

Wire a geo-split or customer-hash holdout through Stripe, HubSpot, or Shopify and the same validation run produces incremental evidence. The ledger keeps every decision's full record: directive → lift → p-value → holdout flag. Attribution optional.

"Spend window · retention +4.2pp · p=0.031 · holdout n=8,400 · incremental." That is a sentence a finance director uses to justify a budget increase — not a dashboard screenshot.

// illustrative— holdout shown where a geo-split / customer-hash cohort is wired
actionaggressive_uacq
fired2026-06-06T09:14Z
cohort8,400 players
pre38.1% retention
post+4.2pp (42.3%)
p-value0.031
holdoutcustomer-hash · n=4,200
✓ incremental lift confirmed — illustrative, with a holdout wired

The cross-competitor read your own dashboards can't build.

Your internal telemetry sees one game: yours. It's structurally blind to every rival. Metriqal turns public Steam signals into the competitive intelligence no internal BI team produces — the rivals and the whole field, not just your own game.

🗣️

Rival complaint intelligence

We mine every tracked rival's negative reviews into ranked complaint themes — fixable defects vs. sentiment-driven narratives, with share-of-voice and verbatim quotes. Your roadmap openings and UA poach angles, sourced from what their players actually hate. Internal mining only ever sees your own game; this is the field.

AI-mined
📊

Live competitive standings

Every tracked rival and your own game on one page, ranked by live concurrency — 30-day trend, 7-day momentum, recent + all-time review scores, Boxleiter sales estimate, price & discount, and a vulnerability/opening score. The whole field, benchmarked and refreshed continuously, not a quarterly deck.

Continuous refresh
Market research · UA practitioner pain
"The cost of marketing is rising constantly. Measurability is declining at the same time — meaning it's getting harder and harder to do marketing profitably. The missing signal is external: knowing when a specific competitor is structurally weakening, independent of your own measurement stack."
— Recurring theme from UA-practitioner interviews at mid-market mobile and PC game studios, 2025–2026
Back-test · Detection timing · Public incident · Nov 2024
"Way of the Hunter's physics overhaul shipped 1 Nov 2024. The CCU decline became publicly visible on SteamDB at T+41 hours. Running Metriqal's signal model against the historical data, the vulnerability score crossed the threshold at T+3 hours — 38 hours before it was visible in any public data source. Studios monitoring that window had a 38-hour head start to act while the vulnerability was open."
— Retroactive back-test · Metriqal detection model vs. SteamDB public visibility · 38-hour lead · Nov 2024

What we do that others don't.

Manual SteamDB monitoring tells you what already happened. MMPs tell you which channel it came from — when attribution works. Metriqal tells you when to push and when to hold, before the window closes.

Capability Metriqal Manual Monitoring MMPs & Attribution Tools
Structural decline detection (multi-week CCU + sentiment + ad pullback) ✓ automatic manual, slow
Pre-public decline detection (back-tested) ✗ reactive
Signal independent of your own attribution stack ✓ external signal partial ✗ attribution-dependent
Own-game readiness gate (blocks spend when product is weak) ✓ automatic
Spend directives with confidence ceilings
Post-directive lift validation (two-proportion z-test, 7 days) ✓ built-in export only
Competitor discovery (automated daily scan) ✓ IGDB + Jaccard
Per-rival complaint-theme mining (roadmap + poach angles) ✓ AI-mined
Setup time 10 min ongoing manual weeks–months

Production-grade from day one.

No analyst. No data warehouse. No attribution dependency. Works against your existing App ID in 10 minutes.

Detection lead
38 hrs
back-test · Nov 2024 · 1 incident
Competitor radar
Hourly
+ 30-min live CCU sampling
Lift validation
7 days
Post-directive · automatic
Insight engine
Live
<2s per directive

Stop spending randomly. Start timing structurally.

One App ID. No data warehouse. No attribution dependency. No sales call. Credentials hit your inbox in seconds — free to start.

Get Started →